学会誌「自然災害科学」

電力消費量時系列データを利用した復旧・復輿状況の定量的把握手法
－阪神・淡路大震災への適用－

Quantitative Monitoring of Recovery Process Using Time-series Data of Electric Power Consumption - An application for the Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster -

高島 正典*・林 春男**

Masasuke TAKASHIMA* and Haruo HAYASHI**

Abstract

This paper provides a method to estimate chronological change of the opportunity losses due to natural disaster in real time using time-series data of electricity consumption. The size of opportunity losses is defined as the integral of the difference between the actual GRP (Gross Regional Product) after the disaster and the hypothetical GRP which would have been achieved in case there were no disasters. Since the GRP shows a strong correlation with the electricity consumption of the region, we can estimate the GRP in real time from electricity consumption in the impacted area. Then the opportunity losses of Hyogo prefecture after the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake were estimated. As a result, the opportunity losses for the first four years after the disaster was estimated to be \1.85 trillion.

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