学会誌「自然災害科学」

四国地方の地震動予測システムの構築

Earthquake Motion Prediction System in Shikoku Region

大江 欽二郎*・辻原 治**・澤田 勉***・川人 亮祐****・平尾 潔***

Kinjiro OHE*, Osamu TSUJIHARA**, Tsutomu SAWADA***, Ryosuke KAWAHITO**** and Kiyoshi HIRAO***

Abstract

The objective of this study is to establish the database of earthquakes and soil condition, and the earthquake motion prediction system in Shikoku region that is fundamentals for estimating the earthquake damage of structures in the area. The database of earthquake consists of the earthquake data with magnitude over 5, that occurred in Japan since A.D.679. The database also includes the data of active faults in Shikoku, which may cause the huge earthquakes in the future. The database of soil condition consists of bore hole data at each site in Tokushima prefecture. The peak values (PGA, PGV and PGD) on engineering base are predicted by using attenuation equation by Annaka et al.11). They are then converted to the peak values on ground surface by the regression analysis. The acceleration time history on base is predicted by using the simulation technique, in which the peak values of simulated time histories have the same PGA, PGV and PGD as obtained from the attenuation equations by Annaka et al. Surface acceleration time history is then computed by frequency dependent equi-linearized technique by Sugito et al.16) . The databases and prediction results are visualized by using the software (Visual Basic and GIS).

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