学会誌「自然災害科学」

経済的尺度に基づく地震防災行政における意志決定法に関する考察

A Decision Making Method of Earthquake Disaster Prevention Policy Based on an Economical Measure

清家 規*・多賀 直恒*

Tadashi SEIKE* and Naotsune TAGA*

Abstract

In a usual seismic damage estimation by a local government, relations between its damage estimation and a local disaster prevention plan or earthquake disaster prevention are not always clear, and it often depends on precedent examples or individual previous experience and intuition of a person-in-charge to select countermeasures in such a plan or policies. From a view point of the so-called accountability of a local government, we need to establish a practical and rational decision making method for earthquake disaster prevention planning. Here we take Fukuoka City, one of twelve designated big cities in Japan, as a target of our case study. First we estimate the building damage from a hypothesized earthquake on the Kego fault, which is running across Fukuoka City. Then we consider various investment plans against the estimated building damage. Finally, we perform the cost-effectiveness analysis for these plans and show how to choose a most efficient plan from an economical point of view. As a result, we found that we can decide priority of different plans in a united manner based on the aseismic safety improvement per unit cost for each plan.

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