学会誌「自然災害科学」

自然災害科学45 Vol.17,No.1, 1998, p57f

【論文】[Regular Paper]

高潮の極値統計に関する2, 3の考察

Some Considerations on Extreme Statistics of Storm Surge Height

山口 正隆*・大福 学*・畑田 佳男*

Masataka YAMAGUCHI*, Manabu OHFUKU* and Yoshio HATADA*

Abstract

The return values and their standard deviations for typhoon-generated storm surge height measured at Osaka for a period of 94 years from 1902 to 1995 are estimated by using an extended version of Goda's extreme analysis model based on the least square method, in which the candidate distributions are the Gumbel and Weibull distributions. Investigations are conducted as to the effects of factors such as the censoring parameter and the number of years for the measurement on the return storm surge height and its standard deviation. Main conclusions are that increase of sample size associated with lowering of the censoring point and extension of the measurement period are of great importance to improve the accuracy of the estimates and that an extreme analysis using the data classified according to typhoon track does not necessarily produce better estimates in this case.

キーワード:

高潮偏差資料，確率高潮偏差と信頼区間，最小２乗法，大阪湾，極値統計

Key words:

storm surge height data, return value and confidence interval of storm surge height, least square method, Osaka Bay, extreme statistics
*
愛媛大学工学部環境建設工学科
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ehime University