学会誌「自然災害科学」

自然災害科学42 Vol.16,No.2, 1997, p113f

【論文】[Regular Paper]

継続時間を考慮した強風の再現期間推定法

A Regression Model for Estimating Return Period of Strong Winds with Duration of Winf Speed above a Threshold

山口 正隆*・畑田 佳男*・大福 学*

Masataka YAMAGUCHI*, Yoshio HATADA* and Manabu OHFUKU*

Abstract

Based on the statistical analysis using 16-34 yearlong wind speed data observed at 23 lighthouses around the coast of Japan, regression models in which independent variables are the dimensionless variance of wind speed data and the dimensionless threshold value of wind speed are proposed for the estimation of probability distribution of long term wind speed and probability distributions of duration of wind speed above a threshold and peak wind speed during the duration period. Return period of strong winds with duration of wind speed above a threshold, where these values are prescribed at each observation point is evaluated with the combination of the abovementioned three regression models. Interrelation between the present model and the NMI model is discussed. Investigation indicates that both models have the same parameter dependency but that discrepancy between the estimates of mean duration appears due to the difference in sampling interval of wind speed data and definition method of duration data.

キーワード:

風速の持続性，極大風速，再現期間，回帰モデル，日本沿岸

Key words:

wind speed persistence, peak wind speed, return period, regression models, coast of Japan
*
愛媛大学工学部環境建設工学科
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ehime University