学会誌「自然災害科学」

大規模地震災害による人的被害の予測

Prediction of Loss of Human Lives Due to Catastrophic Earthquake Disaster

河田 惠昭*

Yoshiaki KAWATA*

Abstract

The objectives of this paper is to show how to estimate loss of human lives due to catastrophic earthquake disaster. The accuracy of damage estimation decides efficiency of search and rescue activity just after earthquakes in post-disaster crisis　management. This is also very important to have good preparedness in pre-disaster risk management. The number of loss of human lives due to collapsed wood houses is major source of victims in our country. The data of the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster contribute to make the damage estimation accurate. Quantitative prediction about human damage is also proposed here with new relationships in accompany with railway accidents, highway accidents and coming tsunami. Moreover, macroscopic analysis of death toll is presented from the view point of data analysis on catastrophic natural disaster. management.

キーワード:

Key words: