学会誌「自然災害科学」

自然災害科学35 Vol.14,No.2, 1995, p135f

【論文】[Regular Paper]

確率的台風モデルと波高重回帰モデルに基づく台風時波浪の極値の推定

Estimation of Extremes of Typhoon-Generated Waves Based on Stochastic Typhoon Model and Multiple Regression Model

山口 正隆*・畑田 佳男*・花山 格章**・中村 雄二**

Masataka YAMAGUCHI*, Yoshio HATADA*, Masaki HANAYAMA** and Yuji NAKAMURA**

Abstract

This paper presents a system for estimating extremes of typhoon-generated waves over a long term at a prescribed point. The system consists of four kinds of models. They are a Monte-Carlo simulation model for probabilistic generation of typhoon characteristics, termed stochastic typhoon model, a parametric typhoon model for wind estimation, a multiple regression model for estimation of maximum wave height during a typhoon, and an extreme analysis model for estimation of return wave heights. Extreme wave heights for return periods of 50 to l,000 years and their variability ranges are estimated from the simulated data at observation points along the Pacific coast of Western Japan. The return wave heights are in general agreement with those estimated from the observed data in spite of an extremely great difference between simulated and observed periods.

キーワード:

波高の極値，確率的台風モデル，波高重回帰モデル，西日本太平洋岸，モンテカルロシミュレーション

Key words:

extremes of typhoon-generated waves, stochastic typhoon model, multiple regression model, the Pacific coast of Western Japan, Monte-Carlo simulation
*
愛媛大学工学部土木海洋工学科
Department of Civil and Ocean Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ehime University
**
愛媛大学大学院工学研究科
Graduate Course of Civil and Ocean Engineering, Ehime University