Journal of Natural Disaster Science

PREDICTION OF SLOPE FAILURE USING THE ESTIMATED DEPTH OF THE POTENTIAL FAILURE LAYER

Takashi OKIMURA
Associate Professor, Faculty of Engineering, Kobe University

(Received 10 April, 1989 and in revised form 14 July, 1989)

Abstract

Models for predicting the probable failure of surfaces require knowing the depth distribution of the potential failure layer as determined by a simplified penetration test. To establish a method with which to estimate the depth of the potential failure layer, we measured the depth of the layer in a test field. Results showed no clear relation between depth and certain topographical factors. We constructed an estimation method from some of the measured data and used the estimated depth in a model for predicting probable failure sites. Dangerous cells obtained from the estimated depth were present at the same sites as for the measured depth, but not when the mean or uniform depth was used.

Key words

mountain slope failure, potential failure layer, prediction, risk map