Abstract
　The object area is Horobetsu area of Noboribetsu City, a south-western part of Hokkaido Island, where flood disasters occur due to heavy rain almost every year. Flood disasters are caused correlating natural conditions, social conditions and some complex conditions. In this paper, the potential of flood disaster is evaluated by using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). The calculated results generally coincide with the experiential damages. These results are useful as one of the index of disaster countermeasures. Flood disasters correspond to "Seaside rainfall" pattern. The other patterns and discrimination of rainfall patterns must be studied in order to predict flood disasters.

【キーワード】：AHP，浸水害．白然的条件，社会的条件
Key words : AHP, flood disaster, natural condition, social condition

*室蘭工業大学大学院建設工学専攻
Division of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Muroran Institute of Technology
**室蘭工業大学材料物性工学科
Department of Material Science and Engineering, Muroran Institute of Technology
***室蘭工業大学情報工学科
Department of Computer Science and Systems Engineering, Muroran Institute of Technology
****和光技研（株）
Wakogiken Co., Ltd.